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The concept of unforeseen events is considered as a part of a hypothesis of uncertain future. The applications of the consequences of the hypothesis in utility and prospect theories are reviewed. Partially unforeseen events and their role in forecasting are analyzed. Preliminary preparations are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011110243
establish the visibility of all identified economists with Ukrainian desecndance active in academic, governmental or private …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009001212
overall visibility, one to net production and one to international presence, have been used to evaluate and compare two major …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008765903
tolls increases pollution by 20% and decreases visibility by one kilometer. We also estimate that the toll elasticity of air …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114201
The forecast plays an important role in the planning, the decision-making and control in any domain of activity … (univariate models), that use only the information of its past values to forecast the future, can often predict future with more … accuracy than causal or multivariate models. In this paper, we model and forecast the offensive effectiveness of the soccer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789648
lagged relationship provides a precise forecast at the two-year horizon with root mean square forecasting error (RMSFE) as … forecast methodology effectively outperforms any other forecasting technique reported in economic and financial literature …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835571
The assumption we submit, because macroeconomic forcasts would be unperfect, is that behavioral equations doesn't enough describe economic behaviours through the capacity of reaction opposite to environment. Further, the forcaster belongs to his search-system, so that, may be, we must now...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005836791
The following article considers the practical use of temporary connections that arise between different exchange assets. The concrete recommendations to build a trading strategy based on the theory of market focuses are proposed. The main idea in this case is that strong positive correlation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011258360
In general, rational economic agents trade off the cost of waiting for the statistical agencies disseminate the final results of the relevant surveys before making a decision, on the one hand, and of making use of some model based predictions. Thus, from the viewpoint of agents, predictions and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259931
This paper examines the dynamic of prices for different exchange assets in relation to the dynamics of other exchange instruments. The analysis shows that in certain periods there exists a strong connection between the exchange assets(direct or indirect) but it is rather unstable. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011260013