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investments, reduced unemployment and increased labor migration. In the paper the system dynamics model, which describes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009367975
In this paper we analyse the consequences of changes in the consumption patterns on unemployment through an … multiequational model, in which we estimate a consumption function, an investment function and an unemployment rate equation, using a … and persistent shocks to consumption have long lasting effects on unemployment, both directly and indirectly, through …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011112096
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647230
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647399
What matters to economic decision-making is whether the economy has become more or less predictable. People and businesses use information around them to form judgements about what might happen in the future. The rise in uncertainty might be associated with increased concern about extreme...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866688
This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647210
This paper uses a unique survey questionnaire to assess the impact of the 2002 French tax cut on consumption. I find … constraints on consumption in that context. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008497686
This article investigates how wealth and capital gains affected household consumption in the USA in the period 1989 …-2004. The empirical evidence brought so far by a large literature that investigates the role of wealth shocks on consumption is … between durables and non durables consumption, and we also investigate the roles of the different components of household …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008583570
bias when these models are used to make predictions for aggregate consumption. In both a theoretical and a quantitative … exercise, we find that economies of scale in consumption inside the household are positively related to the bias introduced by … the single agent approach in predicted consumption profiles over the life-cycle. We also do an external validation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009147683
This article investigates how wealth affected household consumption in the USA in the period 1989-2007. Previous … several types of wealth on consumption. Our estimates indicate that there is a significant tangible wealth effect, while … financial wealth seems to affect consumption mainly for the richer part of the population. Both effects are larger during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008765638