This volume – Predicting Crisis: Five Essays on the Mathematic Prediction of Economic and Social Crises – is the first of three sets of essays. In this first set the economic and social history of the United States is shown to be a “system of movement,” i.e. a logical and mathematic...

Presented is an evolutionary model of consumer non-durable markets, which is an extension of a previously published paper on consumer durables. The model suggests that the repurchase process is governed by preferential growth. Applying statistical methods it can be shown that in a competitive...

The focus of this study is on black markets which provide an important segment of the parallel economy. These markets operate in disequilibrium,search and information costs become very important.Trafficking in drugs taken as case, to explore both theoretically and empirically. The problem,...

This document analyzes the changes that suffer the amounts demanded of a good, due to changes in its price. For this we use the decomposition in Income and Substitution effects posed by Slutsky and Hicks in their work concerning the analysis of the demand. In general, when the price of a good...

In most of the Intermediate Microeconomics or Microeconomic Theory texts, when the demand of individuals subject is analyzed, especially the Price-Consumption paths and Income-Expansion paths , Examples are presented in which the utility functions correspond to regular preferences, that is, the...

Fraud is an ancient crime and one that annually causes hundreds of billions of dollars in losses. We examine the behavioral patterns over time of different types of frauds, which illustrate cyclical frequencies. We develop an evolutionary theory that suggests cyclic behavior in frauds should be...

We introduce a “reason-based” way of rationalizing an agent’s choice behaviour, which explains choices by specifying which properties of the options or choice context the agent cares about (the “motivationally salient properties”) and how he or she cares about these properties (the...

This paper characterizes different belief revision rules in a unified framework: Bayesian revision upon learning some event, Jeffrey revision upon learning new probabilities of some events, Adams revision upon learning some new conditional probabilities, and `dual-Jeffrey' revision upon learning...

This paper was written as the first draft of the invited Foreword for the book, Money and the Economy, by Apostolos Serletis. The paper provides a critical view of those areas in which methodology in economics deviates from that in the physical sciences, provides examples and illustrations of...

The expected utility hypothesis is one of the building blocks of classical economic theory and founded on Savage's Sure-Thing Principle. It has been put forward, e.g. by situations such as the Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes, that real-life situations can violate Savage's Sure-Thing Principle and...