This paper analyzes the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the government debt dynamics in an open economy using the analytical framework of Favero and Giavazzi (2007) extended to an open economy. Applying this modeling approach to the data for the Czech Republic, the authors derive some...

I estimate short and long-run price elasticities of U.S. natural gas supply and demand. For robustness, the estimates are based on data of varying frequencies and samples, some of which include the recent U.S. shale gas boom. Aside from the numbers themselves, there are two main conclusions. As...

The current crisis causes numerous economic uncertainties, such as a break-up of the European currency union, and a Greek exit from the euro area to boost the competitiveness by means of devaluation of national currency. When a factor such as exchange rate is expected to have a significant...

We show that business cycles can emerge and proliferate endogenously in the economy due to the way economic agents learn, form their expectations, and make decisions regarding savings and production for future periods. There are no exogenous shocks of any kind to productivity or any other...

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has been increasingly used by various central banks for assessing the direction and strength of economic activity. One of the sub-indices or component level information provided by PMI is that of industrial input and output prices trends as surveyed...

In this paper we describe one of the most important models on financial crisis prediction in emerging markets; we also present the results of the test of this model of “thresholds” using monthly data from 1970 to first quarter of 2009. The suggested model has been based on the signal...

The nature of short- and long-term business cycles is a topic of considerable interest to futurists, since the state of the economy affects the possibilities for dealing with so many other areas of interest, from pollution control to child care. In this article, which is based on a talk that the...

Our analysis, based on a variety of standard econometric techniques, aims to be a fairly comprehensive test of the hypotheses about long cycles, associated with the name of Kondratiev/Kondratieff. Our work tries to link the issue of long cycles with the issue of economic convergence and...

This study attempts to introduce an appropri¬¬ate model for modeling and forecasting Iran’s crude oil price volatility. Therefore, this hypothesis will be tested about whether long memory feature matters in forecasting the price of this commodity. For this purpose, using the Iran’s weekly...

The aim of this paper is to simulate profit expectations as an emergent property using an agent based model. The paper builds upon adaptive expectations, interactive expectations and small world networks, combining them into a single adaptive interactive profit expectations model (AIE)....