tentative, our scenarios show that inflation will decrease substantially though inflation inertia may prevent a rapid … stabilization of food prices. One of the main driving forces behind domestic inflation is agricultural output growth. While exchange … Ethiopia, and the model predictions will not be valid. …

This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth …

There are many econometric methods for forecasting by different economic variables in the future. recently, the … procedures of dynamic forecasting either for univariate or multivariate models were available for estimation on the software … models, with respect to, estimation, choosing the best fit model for forecasting by the economic variables, i.e., labor and …

forecasting purposes where the traditional ARMA specification is preferred. Accounting for the Easter effect improves the forecast …There is no standard economic forecasting procedure that systematically outperforms the others at all horizons and with … criteria, and then forecast. I compare the out-of-sample performance of a large number of autoregressive integrated moving …

factors such as GDP, exchange rate, inflation, capital markets and fiscal deficit. We forecast some of the major economic … variables using ARIMA modeling and present a picture of the Indian economy in the coming years. The findings indicate that …

models (Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA and GARCH) based on multi-step ahead forecast mean squared errors. We investigate …In this paper, we examine the daily water demand forecasting performance of double seasonal univariate time series … whether combining forecasts from different methods and from different origins and horizons could improve forecast accuracy. We …

The paper examines forecast performances of some popular rules of thumb vis-à-vis more sophisticated time series models … in the specific context of foreign tourist arrival in India. Among all forecasting approaches attempted in the study …, exponential smoothing (ES) and ARIMA provided the best short-term forecasts, closely followed by autoregressive distributed lag …

Deficit/ Surplus, Unemployment Rate, Inflation and others. We forecast the macroeconomic variables post 2012 using ARIMA … deficit. ARIMA models indicate that with the continuance of present government’s policies, budgetary deficit is estimated to …