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Evaluating how predictable errors in expected income affect consumption
Giamboni, Luigi; Millemaci, Emanuele; Waldmann, Robert - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2007
This paper studies whether anomalies in consumption can be explained by a behavioral model in which agents make predictable errors in forecasting income. We use a micro-data set containing subjective expectations about future income. The paper shows that, the null hypothesis of rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005790423
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Measuring consumer inflation expectations in Europe and examining their forward-lookingness
Lyziak, Tomasz - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009
This paper presents numerical measures of European consumers’ inflation expectations derived on the basis of European Commission qualitative survey data with different quantification methods, i.e. with the probability method, the regression method and the logistic (and linear) function method....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008543492
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Using sentiment to predict GDP growth and stock returns
Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647230
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Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns
Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647399
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The Simonian bounded rationality hypothesis and the expectation formation mechanism
Kowalski, Tadeusz - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2002
Abstract. In the 1980s and at beginning of the 1990s the debate on expectation formation mechanism was dominated by the rational expectation hypothesis. Later on, more interest was directed towards alternative approaches to expectations analysis, mainly based on the bounded rationality paradigm...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009328121
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The Determinants of Music Piracy in a Sample of College Students
Bellemare, Marc F.; Holmberg, Andrew M. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010
Why do some individuals pirate digital music while others pay for it? Using data on a sample of undergraduate students, we study the determinants of music piracy by looking at whether a respondent’s last song was obtained illegally or not. In doing so, we incorporate (i) the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008557254
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On the fundamentals of winning virtuous strategies creation toward leveraged buyout transactions implementation during private equity investment in conditions of resonant absorption of discrete information in diffusion - type financial system with induced nonlinearities
Ledenyov, Dimitri O.; Ledenyov, Viktor O. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014
induced nonlinearities. We formulate the Ledenyov theory on the winning virtuous strategies creation toward the leveraged …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011107335
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La spéculation contribue- t- elle à expliquer la dynamique des prix des produits alimentaires au Sénégal ?
Diagne, Youssoupha S; Fall, Alsim - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009
This paper deals with the role of speculation on food prices' fluctuations in Senegal. The analysis is based on a nonlinear rational expectations commodity storage model which seems to be the appropriate approach to explain the behavior of the speculators who intervene on the food markets. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011107785
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Bayesian equilibrium by iterative conjectures: a theory of games with players forming conjectures iteratively starting with first order uninformative conjectures
Teng, Jimmy - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011
set of games than current Nash Equilibrium based games theory, including games with inaccurate observations, games with … games analyzed by the current games theory, it generates far lesser equilibriums and normally generates only a unique … equilibrium. It also resolves inconsistencies in equilibrium results by different solution concepts in current games theory. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011107880
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Non-positive scaling factor in probability quantification methods: deriving consumer inflation perceptions and expectations in the whole euro area and Ireland
Lyziak, Tomasz - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011
There are problems with using probability quantification methods when the scaling factor applied in those methods becomes non-positive. The way of adjusting them proposed in this note and verified empirically allows using them in such circumstances. The results for the euro area and Ireland...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011108122