This paper investigates the time-varying correlation between the EU12-wide business cycle and the initial EU12 member-countries based on Scalar-BEKK and multivariate Riskmetrics model frameworks for the period 1980-2012. The paper provides evidence that changes in the business cycle...

We estimate a two-sector DSGE model with financial intermediaries—a-la Gertler and Karadi 2011) and Gertler and Kiyotaki (2010)—and quantify the importance of financial shocks in accounting for aggregate and sectoral fluctuations. Our results indicate a significant role of financial market...

We estimate a two-sector DSGEmodel with financial intermediaries—a-la Gertler and Karadi (2011) and Gertler and Kiyotaki (2010)—and quantify the importance of news shocks in accounting for aggregate and sectoral fluctuations. Our results indicate a significant role of financial market news...

We develop a two-sector DSGE model with financial intermediation to investigate the role of news as a driving force of the business cycle. We find that news about future capital quality is a significant source of aggregate fluctuations, accounting for around 37% in output variation in cyclical...

We estimate a two-sector DSGE model with financial intermediaries—a-la Gertler and Karadi 2011) and Gertler and Kiyotaki (2010)—and quantify the importance of financial shocks in accounting for aggregate and sectoral fluctuations. Our results indicate a significant role of financial market...

Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model is chosen. The results show that a...

This paper examines the spatial interaction of neighboring cities over their employment cycles. The cycles of neighboring cities tend to be more similar to one another than are those of non-neighboring cities, although this is due primarily to neighbors' tendency to be in the same state. In...

This paper examines the prospects for Australia meeting the Governments target to bring unemployment down to 5 per cent by the year 2000. Particular attention is paid to the effect of the business cycle on unemployment.

The main purpose of the paper is to analyze different channels for innovations. We consider the influence of various incentives for innovation in Russian companies taking into account the organization of industries — vertical or horizontal orientation, peculiarities of corporate demography,...