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Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test for independence, Fisher’s exact test or the Pesaran and Timmerman (1992) test for market timing. These tests are asymptotically valid for serially independent observations....
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Microfoundations of the euro's effect on euro area trade hinge on the timing, the speed and the size of adjustment in … at the sector level. We find that, due to falling trade costs, trade within the euro area increases between the years … 2000 and 2003 by 10 to 20 percent compared with trade between European countries that are not members of the euro area …
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A huge body of empirical and theoretical literature has emerged on the relationship between foreign exchange (FX) uncertainty and international trade. Empirical findings about the impact of FX uncertainty on trade figures are at best weak and often ambiguous with respect to its direction. Almost...
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