In this paper we examine the difference between T-Bill returns and common stock returns in Turkey. We observe that there is a bond premium in Turkey unlike the equity premia in developed countries. As an attempt to explain this surprising observation, we incorporate inflation risk and default...

This paper documents a new stylized fact of the U.S. greater macroeconomic stability of the last two decades or so. Using 131 monthly time series, three popular statistical methods and the forecasts of the Federal Reserve's Green book and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show that the...

This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates with the help of econometric models. Agents use least squares learning to estimate two competing models of which one is consistent with rational expectations once learning is...

Deterministic simulations with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s core FPS model show how New Zealand’s broad macroeconomic environment might have evolved over the 1990s, if a US nominal yield curve and US TWI exchange rate movements under a common currency arrangement had been...

Using a recently introduced nonparametric test, I investigate two important and distinct asymmetries in cross-country quarterly macroeconomic time series. Asymmetries are suggested by many theories (old and new), and those discovered aid in the selection of the appropriate nonlinear time series...

Euler equation models represent an important class of macroeconomic systems. Our research on the Leeper and Sims Euler equations macroeconomic model reveals the existence of singularity-induced bifurcations, when the model's parameters are within a confidence region about the parameter...

A two-block open economy model is estimated in this paper using Australian and U.S. data. Evaluation of the estimated model is carried out in relation to a simple closed economy alternative. Namely, we inspect the implied transmission mechanisms, and examine the relative out-of-sample...

This paper reports on unsolved problems in our research on testing for nonlinearity and chaos and for designing bifurcation stabilization policies conditional upon macroeconomic models.

This paper investigates the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks when the=20 impact of monetary policy on real activity works through state-dependent=20 variables. We use a nonlinear model, the multiple regime smooth transition=20 autoregressive model, that allows the effects of shocks to vary...

This paper analyses the 1980s Latin American debt crisis in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico and, in particular, the influence of cumulative processes at work in its early and final stages. The paper is organised in three sections. The first examines the crisis<92> features in the three countries, and...</92>