Keynes (1936) said that shortage of money caused by hoarding or failure to invest led to unemployment, but Lucas (1972) said that money does not affect unemployment. The tables have now turned. Gani (2003) produced a model of indirect trade in which money is necessary as a means of payment....

New Keynesian models of the business cycle have become the new paradigm of monetary economics, often used for policy analysis. This paper shows that this class of models fail in one crucial respect: they imply a strong negative contemporaneous correlation between inflation and output....

Monetary models of the business cycle often neglect the importance of investment and the capital stock in the monetary transmission mechanism. Most of the recent literature assumes either investment adjustment costs or ignores capital altogether. This paper re-takes the argument put forward by...

This paper shows that there are striking implications that stem from including durable goods in otherwise conventional sticky price models. The behavior of these models depends heavily on whether durable goods are present and whether these goods have sticky prices. If long-lived durables have...

We estimate output growth rate spectra for 58 countries. The spectra exhibit diverse shapes. To study the sources of this diversity, we estimate the short-run, business cycle, and long-run frequency components of the sampled series. For most OECD countries the bulk of the spectral mass is in the...

A controversial result of some current research on the real business cycles is the claim that a common stochastic trend(the cumulative effect of permanent shocks to productivity)underlies the bulk of economic fluctuations. If confirmed, this will imply that many other forces have been relatively...

The cyclical behavior of hours worked, wages, and consumption does not conform with the prediction of the representative agent with standard preferences. The residual in the intra-temporal first-order condition for commodity consumption and leisure is often viewed as a failure of labor-market...

We reformulate and extend the standard AS-AD growth model of the Neoclassical Synthesis (Stage I) with its traditional microfoundations. The model still has an LM curve in the place of a Taylor interest rate rule, exhibits sticky wages as well as sticky prices, myopic perfect foresight of...

Recently, Gali and others find that technological progress may be contractionary: a favorable technology shock reduces hours worked in the short run. We ask whether this observation is robust in disaggregate data. According to our VAR analysis of 458 four-digit U.S. manufacturing industries for...