We model a situation in which two retailers consider launching an "Advance Booking Discount" (ABD) program. In this program, customers are enticed to precommit their orders at a discount price prior to the regular selling season. However, these precommitted orders are filled during the selling...

In the academic literature and professional practice, there are a number of alternative and apparently competing methods for valuing risky projects. In this paper, we compare and contrast three different approaches: risk-adjusted discount-rate analysis, option pricing analysis, and decision...

Decisions are often made under conditions of uncertainty about the actions of supposedly-rational competitors. The modeling of optimal behavior under such conditions is the subject of noncooperative game theory, of which a cornerstone is Harsanyi's formulation of games of incomplete information....

The Pratt-Arrow measure of local risk aversion is generalized for the n-dimensional state-preference model of choice under uncertainty in which the decision maker may have inseparable subjective probabilities and utilities, unobservable stochastic prior wealth, and/or smooth nonexpected-utility...

Subjective expected utility theory does not distinguish between attitudes toward uncertainty (ambiguous probabilities) and attitudes toward risk (unambiguous probabilities). Both are explained in terms of nonlinear utility for money rather than properties of events per se, hence, the decision...

A scoring rule is a reward function for eliciting or evaluating forecasts expressed as discrete or continuous probability distributions. A rule is strictly proper if it encourages the forecaster to state his true subjective probabilities, and effective if it is associated with a metric on the...

The issue of equivalence between chance-constrained programming problems (CCPP's) and Bayesian utility-maximization problems (BUMP's), and the anomalous evaluation of information in CCPP's, are re-examined in light of a recent paper by Jagannathan and the ensuing exchange between Jagannathan and...

Scoring rules can provide incentives for truthful reporting of probabilities and evaluation measures for the probabilities after the events of interest are observed. Often the space of events is ordered and an evaluation relative to some baseline distribution is desired. Scoring rules typically...

This paper introduces a Bayesian decision theoretic model of optimal production in the presence of learning-curve uncertainty. The well-known learning-curve model is extended to allow for random variation in the learning process with uncertainty regarding some parameter of the variation. A...

In the standard search problem there is an infinite pool of items whose distribution of values is known. A decision maker draws an item from the pool, observes its value, and decides whether to keep it or to draw another item. He can keep only one item, and he seeks the item with the largest...