This is the true story of the actual use of a formal, decentralized division procedure to allocate silver heirlooms among eight grandchildren fairly and efficiently without distasteful direct monetary payments. Each grandchild's stated preferences for objects in contention were roughly...

A cognitive analysis of subjective probability is applied to the evaluation of techniques used by decision analysts for eliciting probabilities from experts. The construction of a subjective probability requires both the formation of a belief and the assessment of a probability that qualifies...

In order to review the empirical literature on subjective probability encoding from a psychological and psychometric perspective, it is first suggested that the usual encoding techniques can be regarded as instances of the general methods used to scale psychological variables. It is then shown...

Many decision makers operate in dynamic environments in which markets, competitors, and technology change regularly. The ability to detect and respond to these regime shifts is critical for economic success. We conduct three experiments to test how effective individuals are at detecting such...

A risk assessment model is developed to relate adverse health effects to alternative carbon monoxide standards. The analysis requires information in the form of available data and expert judgments concerning factors such as ambient CO level, human exposure to CO, physiological responses, and...

Decisions are often made under conditions of uncertainty about the actions of supposedly-rational competitors. The modeling of optimal behavior under such conditions is the subject of noncooperative game theory, of which a cornerstone is Harsanyi's formulation of games of incomplete information....

A decision maker needs to give his subjective probability for a single event of interest, A. Being aware that he has little substantive knowledge of the factors affecting A, the decision maker asks an expert for advice. The expert gives his subjective probability for A. In the light of this...

This paper investigates the psychometric properties of three measures of subjective uncertainty---a zero-to-hundred subjective probability scale and two seven point rating scales. Individual level analysis applied to data obtained from two separate studies suggests that the scales produce fairly...

Despite the common reliance on numerical probability estimates in decision research and decision analysis, there is considerable interest in the use of verbal probability expressions to communicate opinion. A method is proposed for obtaining and quantitatively evaluating verbal judgments in...

The paper explores the uniqueness properties of the subjective probabilities in two axiomatizations of state-dependent preferences. Karni, Schmeidler, and Vind's (KSV 1983) system depends on selecting an arbitrary auxiliary probability, and as such, does not guarantee the uniqueness of the...