This investigation draws upon concepts from prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky [Kahneman, D., A. Tversky. 1979. Prospect theory: an analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica 47 263--291.]) and multiattribute utility theory (Keeney and Raiffa [Keeney, R. L., H. Raiffa. 1976. Decisions...

A precise determination of a multiattribute utility function of a decision maker or a group of decision makers requires considerable information that may not be available in many decision situations. In this paper the method HOPIE, which allows one to determine a set of utility functions...

Given the difficulties people experience in making trade-offs, what are the consequences of using simple models that avoid trade-offs? We examine choices by such models in environments where "true" preferences are linear and attributes are characterized by binary attributes. A deterministic...

Numerous studies have shown that compensation demanded (CD) to give up a commodity often greatly exceeds willingness to pay (WTP) to obtain the same commodity, even in incentive compatible experiments that penalize strategic misrepresentation. Observed CD/WTP disparities are too large to be...

In this research we extend theoretical development about decision making in organizations in which many kinds of errors cannot be tolerated. Catastrophic consequences can be associated with faulty decision making in reliability-seeking organizations, a situation which does not occur in most...

Using field data from an American financial services organization, we examined the effects of three important variables in Cyert and March's (1963) initial conceptualization of the aspiration-level adaptation process: The previous aspiration level, performance feedback, and social comparison....

We investigate the decision heuristics used by experts to forecast that early-stage ventures are subsequently commercialized. Experts evaluate 37 project characteristics and subjectively combine data on all cues by examining both critical flaws and positive factors to arrive at a forecast. A...

Boom and bust is a pervasive dynamic for new products. Word of mouth, marketing, and learning curve effects can fuel rapid growth, often leading to overcapacity, price war, and bankruptcy. Previous experiments suggest such dysfunctional behavior can be caused by systematic "misperceptions of...

Decision makers have a strong tendency to consider problems as unique. They isolate the current choice from future opportunities and neglect the statistics of the past in evaluating current plans. Overly cautious attitudes to risk result from a failure to appreciate the effects of statistical...

Payne, Laughhunn, and Crum (Payne, J. W., D. J. Laughhunn, R. Crum. 1984. An experimental study of multiattribute risky choice. Management Sci. 30 1350--1361.) found that managers were multiattribute risk averse for gains, but multiattribute risk prone for losses, a pattern that is inconsistent...