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Steady-State Approximation for a Vector Valued Markov Chain

Vaughan, Timothy S. - In: Management Science 36 (1990) 8, pp. 919-927

The problem addressed is that of a condensed steady-state solution for the Markov Chain (X(t), S(t)). The steady state marginal distribution of S(t) is known; we desire only the steady state marginal distribution of X(t). Such a case frequently arises when the supplementary random variable S(t)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009203701

An Exact and Efficient Algorithm for the Constrained Dynamic Operator Staffing Problem for Call Centers

Bhandari, Atul; Scheller-Wolf, Alan; Harchol-Balter, Mor - In: Management Science 54 (2008) 2, pp. 339-353

Call center managers are facing increasing pressure to reduce costs while maintaining acceptable service quality. Consequently, they often face constrained stochastic optimization problems, minimizing cost subject to service-level constraints. Complicating this problem is the fact that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204081

Predicting Future Random Events Based on Past Performance

Morrison, Donald G.; Schmittlein, David C. - In: Management Science 27 (1981) 9, pp. 1006-1023

There are many situations where one is interested in predicting the expected number of events in period 2 given that x events occurred in period 1. For example, insurance companies must decide whether or not to cancel the insurance of drivers who had 3 or more accidents during the previous year....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204283

Probabilistic Analyses and Algorithms for Three-Level Distribution Systems

Chan, Lap Mui Ann; Simchi-Levi, David - In: Management Science 44 (1998) 11-Part-1, pp. 1562-1576

We consider the problem of integrating inventory control and vehicle routing into a cost-effective strategy for a distribution system consisting of a single outside vendor, a fixed number of warehouses and many geographically dispersed retailers. Each retailer faces a constant, retailer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009208906

A Model for Predicting Frequencies of Random Events

Rosenfield, Donald - In: Management Science 33 (1987) 8, pp. 947-954

This paper presents a new technique for forecasting frequencies of events over time for individuals. The technique bases future occurrences on an estimation procedure based on historical data. The estimation procedure incorporates two types of uncertainty: population variation and individual...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009208983

A Multiplicative Formula for Aggregating Probability Assessments

Bordley, Robert F. - In: Management Science 28 (1982) 10, pp. 1137-1148

This paper presents an axiomatic approach to the problem of aggregating expert assessments of an event's probability … into some group probability assessment. A multiplicative formula is derived. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009209252

State of the Art---Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review

Wallsten, Thomas S.; Budescu, David V. - In: Management Science 29 (1983) 2, pp. 151-173

In order to review the empirical literature on subjective probability encoding from a psychological and psychometric … psychometric theory can provide a general framework for evaluating and assessing subjective probability encoding. The actual review …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009214050

Note---On the Aggregation of Individual Probability Estimates

Bordley, Robert F.; Wolff, Ronald W. - In: Management Science 27 (1981) 8, pp. 959-964

This Note considers the problem of aggregating individual probability estimates of an event to obtain a group estimate …. Norman Dalkey has argued that no rigorous theory of probability aggregation is possible for the following reasons: (1) There … is no consistent way of aggregating individual probability estimates (Dalkey's Impossibility Theorem). But Dalkey …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009214490

A Belief-Based Account of Decision Under Uncertainty

Fox, Craig R.; Tversky, Amos - In: Management Science 44 (1998) 7, pp. 879-895

(i) judgments of probability, which are assumed to satisfy support theory; and (ii) decisions under risk, which are … assumed to satisfy prospect theory. In two experiments, subjects evaluated uncertain prospects and assessed the probability of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009214756

Manipulation Robustness of Collaborative Filtering

Roy, Benjamin Van; Yan, Xiang - In: Management Science 56 (2010) 11, pp. 1911-1929

A collaborative filtering system recommends to users products that similar users like. Collaborative filtering systems influence purchase decisions and hence have become targets of manipulation by unscrupulous vendors. We demonstrate that nearest neighbors algorithms, which are widely used in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009214872