This paper characterizes the optimal composition of a group for making a combined forecast. In the model, individual forecasters have types defined according to a statistical criterion we call <i>type coherence.</i> Members of the same type have identical expected accuracy, and forecasters within a...

Prior research provides only weak and controversial evidence that people overestimate the likelihood of desirable events (wishful thinking), but strong evidence that people bet more heavily on those events (wishful betting). Two experiments show that wishful betting contaminates beliefs in...

We present a novel methodology for identifying public knowledge and eliminating the biases it creates when aggregating information in small group settings. A two-stage mechanism consisting of an information market and a coordination game is used to reveal and adjust for individuals' public...

Averaging estimates is an effective way to improve accuracy when combining expert judgments, integrating group members' judgments, or using advice to modify personal judgments. If the estimates of two judges ever fall on different sides of the truth, which we term bracketing, averaging must...

Double auction prediction markets have proven successful in large-scale applications such as elections and sporting events. Consequently, several large corporations have adopted these markets for smaller-scale internal applications where information may be complex and the number of traders is...

A decision maker trying to learn about an uncertain quantity may obtain divergent information from a number of sources (e.g., experts). In this paper we study the decision maker's problem of aggregating this information to form his posterior distribution when he believes that the experts'...

We document experimentally how biased self-assessments affect the outcome of labor markets. In the experiments, we exogenously manipulate the self-confidence of participants in the role of workers regarding their relative performance by employing hard and easy real-effort tasks. Participants in...

This paper characterizes equilibrium persuasion through selective disclosure based on the personal information that senders acquire about the preferences and orientations of receivers, with applications to strategic marketing and campaigning. We derive positive and normative implications...

Prior research suggests that social connections, including acquaintances, friends, and family, are valuable in a job search process. In these studies, the size of an average job seeker’s network was much smaller and limited by the available modes of communication and the costs associated with...

Using the wisdom of crowds -- combining many individual judgments to obtain an aggregate estimate -- can be an effective technique for improving judgment accuracy. In practice, however, accuracy is limited by the presence of correlated judgment errors, which often emerge because information is...