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New Product Diffusion Decisions Under Supply Constraints

Shen, Wenjing; Duenyas, Izak; Kapuscinski, Roman - In: Management Science 57 (2011) 10, pp. 1802-1810

Two recent papers on managing new product diffusion decisions under production constraints reach somewhat contradictory conclusions. Ho et al. (Ho, T.-H., S. Savin, C. Terwiesch. 2002. Managing demand and sales dynamics in new product diffusion under supply constraint. <i>Management Sci.</i> <b>48</b>(2)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990634

Pricing an Option on Revenue from an Innovation: An Application to Movie Box Office Revenue

Chance, Don M.; Hillebrand, Eric; Hilliard, Jimmy E. - In: Management Science 54 (2008) 5, pp. 1015-1028

We develop a model for valuing revenue streams from innovations. The stochastic properties of revenue from innovations create a more difficult environment in which to value options than when the underlying is a security. There is no initial revenue, and cumulative revenue cannot decrease....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009214814

The Diffusion of Flexible Manufacturing Systems in Japan, Europe and the United States

Mansfield, Edwin - In: Management Science 39 (1993) 2, pp. 149-159

This paper is concerned with the rate of diffusion of flexible manufacturing systems, one of the most important industrial applications of information technology. Using data from about 175 firms, I analyze diffusion rates in Japan, Western Europe and the United States, a major purpose being to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009208533

Demand Forecasting Behavior: System Neglect and Change Detection

Kremer, Mirko; Moritz, Brent; Siemsen, Enno - In: Management Science 57 (2011) 10, pp. 1827-1843

that forecasting behavior systematically deviates from normative predictions: Forecasters overreact to forecast errors in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990449

A Case-Based Model of Probability and Pricing Judgments: Biases in Buying and Selling Uncertainty

Brenner, Lyle A.; Griffin, Dale W.; Koehler, Derek J. - In: Management Science 58 (2012) 1, pp. 159-178

We integrate a case-based model of probability judgment with prospect theory to explore asset pricing under uncertainty. Research within the "heuristics and biases" tradition suggests that probability judgments respond primarily to case-specific evidence and disregard aggregate characteristics...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990558

Note---Sliding Simulation: A New Approach to Time Series Forecasting

Makridakis, Spyros - In: Management Science 36 (1990) 4, pp. 505-512

This paper proposes a new approach to time series forecasting based upon three premises. First, a model is selected not … forecasting horizon separately, making it possible to have different models/methods to predict each of the m horizons. This …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009191229

Does a Manufacturer Benefit from Selling to a Better-Forecasting Retailer?

Taylor, Terry A.; Xiao, Wenqiang - In: Management Science 56 (2010) 9, pp. 1584-1598

-forecast information. We show that the manufacturer's expected profit is convex in the retailer's forecasting accuracy: The manufacturer … benefits from selling to a better-forecasting retailer if and only if the retailer is already a good forecaster. If the … retailer has poor forecasting capabilities, then the manufacturer is hurt as the retailer's forecasting capability improves …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009191698

Effective Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Forecasts

Friedman, Daniel - In: Management Science 29 (1983) 4, pp. 447-454

forecasting) are also provided. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009191885

From Story Line to Box Office: A New Approach for Green-Lighting Movie Scripts

Eliashberg, Jehoshua; Hui, Sam K.; Zhang, Z. John - In: Management Science 53 (2007) 6, pp. 881-893

Movie studios often have to choose among thousands of scripts to decide which ones to turn into movies. Despite the huge amount of money at stake, this process--known as green-lighting in the movie industry--is largely a guesswork based on experts' experience and intuitions. In this paper, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197428

Which GARCH Model for Option Valuation?

Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris - In: Management Science 50 (2004) 9, pp. 1204-1221

Characterizing asset return dynamics using volatility models is an important part of empirical finance. The existing literature on GARCH models favors some rather complex volatility specifications whose relative performance is usually assessed through their likelihood based on a time series of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197435