Showing 1 - 7 of 7
By focussing on issues concerning precise relative performance of the human and experimental teams, Ross obscures the major, and a priori surprising result of our study. This is that the experimental teams were not all dominated by the human teams. Replication is the appropriate way to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009214402
Several theories suggest that people replace probabilities by decision weights when evaluating risky outcomes. This paper proposes a model, called venture theory, of how people assess decision weights. It is assumed that people first anchor on a stated probability and then adjust this by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009214775
The formal practice of forecasting and planning (F&P) has risen to prominence within a few decades and now receives considerable attention from both academics and practitioners. This paper explicitly recognizes the nature of F&P as future-oriented decision making activities and, as such, their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204170
No abstract available.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009189773
Given the difficulties people experience in making trade-offs, what are the consequences of using simple models that avoid trade-offs? We examine choices by such models in environments where "true" preferences are linear and attributes are characterized by binary attributes. A deterministic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009191482
On p. 673, we stated that we had been refused permission to replicate our study using the Markstrat game (Hogarth & Makridakis [Hogarth, R. M., S. Makridakis. 1981. The value of decision making in a complex environment: an experimental approach. Management Sci. 27(1) 93--107.]) and questioned...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197544
Are the costs of time and effort spent on analyzing decisions outweighed by benefits? This issue was examined in the context of a competitive business game where human teams were pitted against two kinds of simple-minded arbitrary decision rules: one where rules were applied consistently...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197672