The one-switch property states that the preference between any two lotteries switches at most once as wealth increases. Working within the expected utility framework, we extend the one-switch notion to the multiattribute case and identify the families of multiattribute utility functions that are...

The analysis of a risky project should take into account not only uncertainties about the return from that project ("project risk"), but also uncertainties associated with other ongoing projects and with exogenous factors that can impact final wealth ("background risk"). The presence of...

An important challenge in multiattribute decision analysis is the choice of an appropriate functional form for the utility function. We show that if a decision maker prefers more of any attribute to less and prefers to combine good lotteries with bad, as opposed to combining good with good and...

An important managerial question is the choice of the pricing rule. We study whether this choice depends on the uncertainty about the number of participating bidders by comparing expected revenues under discriminatory and uniform pricing within an auction model with affiliated values, stochastic...

An important characteristic of any offer is the deadline at which it expires. We consider an ultimatum deadline game in which the proposer's decision variable is the offer deadline, while the responder faces a standard finite-horizon search problem. We show that the responder's strategy is...

Decision analysis produces measures of value such as expected net present values or expected utilities and ranks alternatives by these value estimates. Other optimization-based processes operate in a similar manner. With uncertainty and limited resources, an analysis is never perfect, so these...

The availability of data regarding variables of interest in forecasting problems is sometimes limited, but experts may possess a great deal of relevant information. The approach taken in this paper involves the development of adaptive forecasting models based on such information. Since the...

In statistical decision theory, computations often involve the partial moments of a random variable. Several methods for determining partial moments are discussed, including direct calculation, the use of general formulas which apply to entire families of distributions, and the use of partial...

Scoring rules can provide incentives for truthful reporting of probabilities and evaluation measures for the probabilities after the events of interest are observed. Often the space of events is ordered and an evaluation relative to some baseline distribution is desired. Scoring rules typically...

A risk assessment model is developed to relate adverse health effects to alternative carbon monoxide standards. The analysis requires information in the form of available data and expert judgments concerning factors such as ambient CO level, human exposure to CO, physiological responses, and...