We propose a new decision criterion under risk in which individuals extract both utility from anticipatory feelings ex ante and disutility from disappointment ex post. The decision maker chooses his degree of optimism, given that more optimism raises both the utility of ex ante feelings and the...

This paper develops a methodology for showing how forecast horizons for stochastic planning problems relate to the planning procedures and the information system within the organization. To illustrate the approach we have chosen a relatively straightforward production problem where the firm can...

In many different managerial contexts, consumers "leave money on the table" by, for example, their failure to claim rebates, use available coupons, and so on. This project focuses on a related problem faced by homeowners who may be reluctant to file insurance claims despite the fact their losses...

Risk analysis and policy analysis can play important roles in facilitating the siting of potentially hazardous facilities if one recognizes the descriptive features of the decision process. The case of siting a liquified natural gas (LNG) facility in California illustrates the multi-party...

Planning horizons are developed for the dynamic economic lot site model with backlogging when the marginal production cost is either constant or variable. The inventory holding and backlogging cost functions are assumed to be concave. An efficient forward algorithm generalizes the...

Bowman has developed a theory which claims that a manager makes good decisions on the average but that he may exhibit a high variance in his behavior. This paper proposes three general criteria which must be satisfied for this theory to have validity. These tests are then used to evaluate a...

This paper investigates the problem of scheduling production from one period to the next to minimize long-run expected costs where the only relevant considerations are the expense of revising production and the charges related to inventory. We first consider the case of constant sales known over...

This paper develops an algorithm for determining the pricing and ordering decisions for a firm that produces one product for which there is a deterministic demand curve that differs from period to period. It is assumed that the firm wants to maintain the same price for the product throughout the...