This paper reviews several of the current controversies in the relative value of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods. Where expert, informed judgemental forecasts are being used, a critical analysis of the evidence suggests that their quality is higher than many researchers have...

The paper identifies 29 models that the literature suggests are appropriate for technological forecasting. These models are divided into three classes according to the timing of the point of inflexion in the innovation or substitution process. Faced with a given data set and such a choice, the...

We investigate the performance of empirical criteria for comparing and selecting quantitative models from among a candidate set. A simulation based on empirically observed parameter values is used to determine which criterion is the most accurate at identifying the correct model specification....