Consider a discrete time Markov process {X_n, n 0}. For a given subset \scr{A} of the state space, consider the problem of using simulation to estimate the number of transitions it takes the process to enter \scr{A}. Using estimators based on the "observed hazard," we are able to improve on the...

We present a general recipe for constructing experiment design and analysis procedures that simultaneously provide indifference-zone selection and multiple-comparison inference for choosing the best among k simulated systems. We then exhibit two such procedures that exploit the...

This is a review article on lattice methods for multiple integration over the unit hypercube, with a variance-reduction viewpoint. It also contains some new results and ideas. The aim is to examine the basic principles supporting these methods and how they can be used effectively for the...

To analyze simulation runs which use the same random numbers, the blocking concept of experimental design is not needed. Instead, this paper applies a linear regression model with a nondiagonal covariance matrix. This covariance matrix does not need to have a specific pattern such as constant...

Quantile estimation has become increasingly important, particularly in the financial industry, where value at risk (VaR) has emerged as a standard measurement tool for controlling portfolio risk. In this paper, we analyze the probability that a simulation-based quantile estimator fails to lie in...

This paper describes a Monte Carlo method based on the theory of quasirandom points for estimating the distribution functions and means of network completion time and shortest path time in a stochastic activity network. In particular, the method leads to estimators whose absolute errors converge...

Using common random numbers (CRN) in simulation experiment design is known to reduce the variance of estimators of differences in system performance. However, when more than two systems are compared, exact simultaneous statistical inference in conjunction with CRN is typically impossible. We...

This paper describes a simulation procedure for estimating the distribution function of the shortest path length in a network with random arc lengths. The method extends the concept of conditional Monte Carlo utilizing special properties of the Uniformly Directed Cutsets and the unique arcs. The...

We consider applying the nonoverlapping batch means output analysis method in conjunction with the control-variate variance-reduction technique to estimate a steady-state multivariate mean vector. The effects of the number of batches and the number of control variates on the multivariate point...

When the simulation department of Management Science was created in 1978 it ushered in an era of significant methodological advances in stochastic simulation. However, the foundation for the field---not just the work that has been published in Management Science---was provided by two papers...