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Wu, Brian; Knott, Anne Marie - In: Management Science 52 (2006) 9, pp. 1315-1330

This paper attempts to reconcile the risk-bearing characterization of entrepreneurs with the stylized fact that entrepreneurs exhibit conventional risk-aversion profiles. We propose that the disparity arises from confounding two distinct dimensions of uncertainty: demand uncertainty and ability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009214455

Decomposed Versus Holistic Estimates of Effort Required for Software Writing Tasks

Connolly, Terry; Dean, Doug - In: Management Science 43 (1997) 7, pp. 1029-1045

We examine decision analysis' central "decomposition principle" in the context of work-time estimates of software writers. Two experiments examined the abilities of advanced programming students to estimate how long they would take to complete specific software projects. They estimated their own...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009218132

Are Overconfident CEOs Born or Made? Evidence of Self-Attribution Bias from Frequent Acquirers

Billett, Matthew T.; Qian, Yiming - In: Management Science 54 (2008) 6, pp. 1037-1051

overconfidence. We also find evidence that the market anticipates future deals based on the CEO's acquisition history and impounds …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204421

Overconfidence by Bayesian-Rational Agents

Steen, Eric Van den - In: Management Science 57 (2011) 5, pp. 884-896

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one mechanism is slightly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204601

Does Past Success Lead Analysts to Become Overconfident?

Hilary, Gilles; Menzly, Lior - In: Management Science 52 (2006) 4, pp. 489-500

This paper provides evidence that analysts who have predicted earnings more accurately than the median analyst in the previous four quarters tend to be simultaneously less accurate and further from the consensus forecast in their subsequent earnings prediction. This phenomenon is economically...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009208560

Coherence and Consistency of Investors' Probability Judgments

Budescu, David V.; Du, Ning - In: Management Science 53 (2007) 11, pp. 1731-1744

This study investigates the quality of direct probability judgments and quantile estimates with a focus on calibration and consistency. The two response modes use different measures of miscalibration, so it is difficult to directly compare their relative (in)accuracy. We employed a more refined...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009191751

Competing to Be Certain (But Wrong): Market Dynamics and Excessive Confidence in Judgment

Radzevick, Joseph R.; Moore, Don A. - In: Management Science 57 (2011) 1, pp. 93-106

In this paper, we investigate how market competition contributes to the expression of overconfidence among those … helps advisors sell their advice. However, competition between advisors in the market further exacerbates overconfidence. In … a third study, we demonstrate that the market competition drives overconfidence even when advisors vary in quality. We …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197870