This paper describes the results of a two-and-a-half year effort in proactive planning at the Bureau of the Census in Washington, D.C. Most large-scale organizations merely react to their future(s) instead of actively planning for and thus anticipating the future(s) they would like to bring...

This paper deals with the critical role that assumptions play in strategic planning and strategic problem forming. It attempts to formulate a methodology or systematic procedure for (1) uncovering (surfacing), (2) analyzing the effect, and (3) challenging key policy assumptions. The paper shows...

The methodology of simulation involves a representational approach to observed phenomena. Systems theory has been, in the past, more terminology than theory. However, a logical classification of the possible representational forms available for any simulation would serve as a meta-theory in...

This paper describes the difficulties in evaluating large-scale scientific programs. These difficulties are illustrated through a single case study of the Apollo moon program. The paper describes some of the results of a three and a half year investigation into the beliefs of 42 of the most...

This paper presents a new framework for handling ill-structured decision problems. The framework derives from recent developments in the logic of argumentation. It shows how policy statements may under certain conditions be construed as the outcome of a complex process of argumentation. The...

Selected aspects of a heuristic programming study of the design behavior of a practicing mechanical engineer are described. The study documents the tremendous influence that personality and social variables exert on the technical practice of engineering design. The study bears testimony to...

For the past two years I have been studying a group of over forty eminent physical scientists. I have repeatedly interviewed (there are over 220 hours of tape-recorded interviews) and questioned them about their methodology and attitudes towards science and scientists. The purpose of my study...

Using Bayesian probability theory and Ackoff's Behayorial Theory of Communication, a mathematical model of the Hegelian Dialectical Inquirer is developed. The model strongly argues against the widely held and naive distinction between "fact" and "theory." The model strongly argues for a new way...

Every scientific study has its own unique case history. Unfortunately, most scientific papers present a greatly distorted and static image of the true history and sociology of a research project. This paper represents an attempt to report on selected aspects of the actual growth and development...

An information system consists of, at least, a PERSON of a certain PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPE who faces a PROBLEM within some ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT for which he needs EVIDENCE to arrive at a solution, where the evidence is made available through some MODE OF PRESENTATION. This defines the key variables...