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An Algebraic Approach to Formulating and Solving Large Models for Sequential Decisions Under Uncertainty

Kirkwood, Craig W. - In: Management Science 39 (1993) 7, pp. 900-913

This article presents an algebraic approach to formulating and solving large models for sequential decisions under uncertainty. With this approach, decision analysis optimization methods can be applied to complex decision problems which are generally analyzed in management science practice using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009214778

A Comparison of Graphical Techniques for Asymmetric Decision Problems

Bielza, Concha; Shenoy, Prakash P. - In: Management Science 45 (1999) 11, pp. 1552-1569

We compare four graphical techniques for representation and solution of asymmetric decision problems---decision trees, influence diagrams, valuation networks, and sequential decision diagrams. We solve a modified version of Covaliu and Oliver's Reactor problem using each of the four techniques....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197567

Project Management Under Risk: Using the Real Options Approach to Evaluate Flexibility in R...D

Huchzermeier, Arnd; Loch, Christoph H. - In: Management Science 47 (2001) 1, pp. 85-101

Managerial flexibility has value in the context of uncertain R...D projects, as management can repeatedly gather information about uncertain project and market characteristics and, based on this information, change its course of action. This value is now well accepted and referred to as "real...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197701

Demand Forecasting Behavior: System Neglect and Change Detection

Kremer, Mirko; Moritz, Brent; Siemsen, Enno - In: Management Science 57 (2011) 10, pp. 1827-1843

that forecasting behavior systematically deviates from normative predictions: Forecasters overreact to forecast errors in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990449

A Case-Based Model of Probability and Pricing Judgments: Biases in Buying and Selling Uncertainty

Brenner, Lyle A.; Griffin, Dale W.; Koehler, Derek J. - In: Management Science 58 (2012) 1, pp. 159-178

We integrate a case-based model of probability judgment with prospect theory to explore asset pricing under uncertainty. Research within the "heuristics and biases" tradition suggests that probability judgments respond primarily to case-specific evidence and disregard aggregate characteristics...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990558

A Model for Predicting Frequencies of Random Events

Rosenfield, Donald - In: Management Science 33 (1987) 8, pp. 947-954

This paper presents a new technique for forecasting frequencies of events over time for individuals. The technique …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009208983

Turnpike Horizons for Production Planning

Thompson, Gerald L.; Sethi, Suresh P. - In: Management Science 26 (1980) 3, pp. 229-241

A quadratic model for production-inventory planning was made famous by Holt, Modigliani, Muth, and Simon in 1960 in (Holt, C. C., F. Modigliani, J. F. Muth, H. A. Simon. 1960. Planning Production, Inventories, and Work Force. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.), especially for its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009209094

A Recursive Kalman Filter Forecasting Approach

Kahl, Douglas R.; Ledolter, Johannes - In: Management Science 29 (1983) 11, pp. 1325-1333

This paper examines the forecasting accuracy and the cost effectiveness of time series models with time …-varying coefficients. A simulation study investigates the potential forecasting benefits of a proposed Kalman filter type adaptive … estimation and forecasting approach. It is found that: (1) When appropriate, the time-varying coefficient approach leads to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009209300

Partitioning Variance in Regression Analyses for Developing Policy Impact Models: The Case of the Federal Medicaid Program

Chen, Milton M. - In: Management Science 30 (1984) 1, pp. 25-36

This paper extends the usual regression analysis to include the partition of the variance to examine the possible secondary and higher order impact of policy variables in a policy impact model. The federal Medicaid program is analyzed using the methodology to assess the impact of the policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009209304

Consensus Forecasts of Corporate Earnings: Analysts' Forecasts and Time Series Methods

Conroy, Robert; Harris, Robert - In: Management Science 33 (1987) 6, pp. 725-738

An alternative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts made by various methods. In this paper … predict corporate earnings per share. We conclude that, on average, the primary forecasting advantages of analysts over time … beginning of the fiscal year. For predictions in the first half of the fiscal year, there is evidence of forecasting benefits …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009209307