An applied procedure is preserved in this paper which has been used to forecast some of the political risks ars oil company faces from investment in an overseas developing country, e.g., expropriation, taxation, price and production controls. The procedure makes use of a panel of experts, but...

This paper reviews several of the current controversies in the relative value of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods. Where expert, informed judgemental forecasts are being used, a critical analysis of the evidence suggests that their quality is higher than many researchers have...

Exponential smoothing methods do not involve a formal procedure for identifying the underlying data generating process. The issue is then whether prediction intervals should be estimated by a theoretical approach, with the assumption that the method is optimal in some sense, or by an empirical...