The formal practice of forecasting and planning (F&P) has risen to prominence within a few decades and now receives considerable attention from both academics and practitioners. This paper explicitly recognizes the nature of F&P as future-oriented decision making activities and, as such, their...

By focussing on issues concerning precise relative performance of the human and experimental teams, Ross obscures the major, and a priori surprising result of our study. This is that the experimental teams were not all dominated by the human teams. Replication is the appropriate way to...

Several theories suggest that people replace probabilities by decision weights when evaluating risky outcomes. This paper proposes a model, called venture theory, of how people assess decision weights. It is assumed that people first anchor on a stated probability and then adjust this by...

No abstract available.

Given the difficulties people experience in making trade-offs, what are the consequences of using simple models that avoid trade-offs? We examine choices by such models in environments where "true" preferences are linear and attributes are characterized by binary attributes. A deterministic...

On p. 673, we stated that we had been refused permission to replicate our study using the Markstrat game (Hogarth & Makridakis [Hogarth, R. M., S. Makridakis. 1981. The value of decision making in a complex environment: an experimental approach. Management Sci. 27(1) 93--107.]) and questioned...

Are the costs of time and effort spent on analyzing decisions outweighed by benefits? This issue was examined in the context of a competitive business game where human teams were pitted against two kinds of simple-minded arbitrary decision rules: one where rules were applied consistently...