This paper evaluates the real-time performance of the Delhi School of Economics-Economic Cycle Research Institute (DSE-ECRI) Indian Leading Index for exports for predicting cyclical swings in Indian exports growth. The index comprises the 36-country real effective exchange rate and leading...

This paper examines various measures of synchronisation of recessions, including clustering of the onset of recession across economies, proportion of economies in expansion and the diffusion index of international coincident indexes, and shows that the recent global recession is possibly the...

This article examines the determinants of government yields in India using weekly data from April 2001 through June 2012. The analysis covers treasury bills with residual maturity of 15–91 days and government securities of residual maturity 1, 5 and 10 years. The empirical estimates show...

This paper develops univariate (ARIMA and ARCH/GARCH) and multivariate models (VAR, VECM and Bayesian VAR) to forecast short- and long-term rates, viz., call money rate, 15–91 days Treasury Bill rates and interest rates on Government securities with (residual) maturities of one year, five...