This paper presents an analysis of labour market dynamics, in particular of flows in the labour market and how they interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market performance. Our analysis has two special features. First,...

This paper applies a multi-state latent factor intensity model to worker flows to obtain insights about the determinants of entry and exit rates pertaining to various labour market states. The analysis shows that one activity factor underpins the decision to move from employment and from...

In this paper we explore a new approach to understanding the evolution of the unemployment rate in Australia. Specifically, we use gross worker flows data to explore the consequences of assuming that there is no unique equilibrium rate of unemployment but rather a continuum of stochastic...

In this paper, we set out a model of labour productivity which distinguishes between shocks which change productivity permanently and shocks which have transient affects on productivity. We show that this model is a type of unobserved components model –a random walk with drift plus noise...

It is important to understand how labour markets in different regions are affected by 'common’ or 'national' shocks including national macroeconomic, monetary and fiscal policies. This paper applies a new econometric approach - involving an unobserved components model - to identify the...

This paper describes microsimulation modelling in non-technical terms and explains what can be achieved with microsimulation modelling in general, and the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS) in particular. The focus is on behavioural microsimulation modelling, which takes...

This paper presents a method of computing welfare changes (compensating and equivalent variations) arising from a tax or social security policy change, in the context of behavioural microsimulation modelling where individuals can choose between a limited number of discrete hours of work. The...

This paper presents two 'non-welfarist' approaches and one 'welfarist' approach to decompose changes in inequality and social welfare into three components. We distinguish the contributions of population, tax policy and labour supply behavioural effects. As an illustration, we decompose changes...

This paper examines the implications, for overall social welfare and inequality comparisons, of using different definitions of the unit of analysis - the income recipient - in computing summary measures. Comparisons are made using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS), a...

This publication is a manual for the use of the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS). MITTS provides a tool for analysing policy changes. It allows us to examine the effect of a variety of policy changes on labour supply and income distribution for the Australian.