We compute a stochastic household forecast for the Netherlands by the random share method. Time series of shares of persons in nine household positions, broken down by sex and five-year age group for the years 1996-2010 are modelled by means of the Hyndman-Booth-Yasmeen product-ratio variant of...

When successive birth cohorts of women get their children at progressively lower ages, births that would have occurred during a certain period without changes in the timing, are now “squeezed” into a shorter period. This pushes period fertility up, and the period Total Fertility Rate (TFR)...

The Scaled Model of Error has gained considerable popularity during the past ten years as a device for computing probabilistic population forecasts of the cohort-component type. In this report we investigate how sensitive probabilistic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model...