The Scaled Model of Error has gained considerable popularity during the past ten years as a device for computing probabilistic population forecasts of the cohort-component type. In this report we investigate how sensitive probabilistic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model...

Dynamic modeling of demand for goods whose cumulated stocks enter an intertemporal utility function as latent variables, is discussed. The issues include: how represent addiction, how handle unobserved expectations and changing plans, how deal with 'dynamic inconsistency'? Arguments are put...

This paper discusses how specification of probabilistic models for multistate duration data generated by individual choices should be justified on a priori theoretical grounds. Preferences are assumed represented by random utilities, where utilities are viewed as random also to the agent...

We estimate the quantitative importance of labour market institutions for equilibrium unemployment in OECD. The empirical equation for unemployment is based on the solution of a dynamic macroeconomic model where wages and prices are jointly determined with unemployment. Compared to existing...

The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is discussed for handling the joint occurrence of fixed effects and random measurement errors in an autoregressive panel data model. Finite memory of disturbances, latent regressors and measurement errors is assumed. Two specializations of GMM are...

Recently Dagsvik and Karlström (2005) have demonstrated how one can compute Compensating Variation and Compensated Choice Probabilities by means of analytic formulas in the context of discrete choice models. In this paper we offer a new and simplified derivation of the Compensated probabilities...

The aim of this paper is two-fold: (a) to establish a 'map' for describing the wide class of Limited Dependent Variables (LDV) univariate and multivariate models in the econometric literature and (b) to localize typical models in this tradition within the structure, extending typologies of...

A system of regression equations (SURE) for analyzing panel data with random heterogeneity in intercepts and coefficients, and unbalanced panel data is considered. A Maximum Likelihood (ML) procedure for joint estimation of all parameters is described. Since its implementation for numerical...

Using aggregate quarterly data for the period 1975q1-2010q4, I find that the US housing market changed from a stable regime with prices determined by fundamentals, to a highly unstable regime at the beginning of the previous decade. My results indicate that these imbalances could have been...

We focus on the equilibrium unemployment rate as a parameter implied by a dynamic aggregate model of wage- and price setting. The equilibrium unemployment rate depends on institutional labour market institutions through mark-up coefficients. Compared to existing studies, the resulting final...