We find out-of-sample predictability of commodity futures excess returns using forecast combinations of 28 potential predictors. Such gains in forecast accuracy translate into economically significant improvements in certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios for a mean-variance investor....

Nelson-Siegel factors extracted from the term structure of WTI oil futures predict subsequent WTI holding period returns both in-sample and out-of-sample. This predictability is not diminished by augmenting with macroeconomic indicators or oil market specific predictors. The term structure based...

In the high-frequency limit, conditional expected increments of fractional Brownian motion converge to a white noise, shedding their dependence on the path history and the forecasting horizon, and making dynamic optimization problems tractable. We find an explicit formula for locally...

A monopolist platform (the principal) shares profits with a population of affiliates (the agents), heterogeneous in skill, by offering them a common nonlinear contract contingent on individual revenue. The principal cannot discriminate across individual skill, but knows its distribution and aims...