This paper investigates empirically the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis (BSH) using annual data over 1970-2008 from 33 countries grouped into developed and developing countries. The innovative feature of our study is that we introduce a new approach for classifying traded and nontraded industries....

In this paper we propose a new test procedure with more general steady state information to test the convergence hypothesis for a specific economy. We consider a model where demeaned per capita output of an economy is a function of time trend and then set the convergence hypothesis as negative...

This paper considers the relationship between growth in real per capita GDP and the growth in real per capita GDP of the poorest 20% of a country. It uses the data set compiled by Dollar and Kraay (2002), but come to very different conclusions. We argue that if the purpose is to answer questions...

We present an empirical analysis of a long run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for thirteen Asian-Pacific countries using cointegration techniques.

This paper establishes vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models for Malaysian monetary policy analysis by efficiently identifying and simultaneously estimating the model parameters using full information maximum likelihood. The monetary literature is largely dominated by vector...

In this paper we investigate the use of description length principles to select an appropriate number of basis functions for functional data. We provide a flexible definition of the dimension of a random function that is constructed directly from the Karhunen-Loève expansion of the observed...

This paper concerns the forecasting of seasonal intraday time series. An extension of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing has been proposed that smoothes an intraday cycle and an intraweek cycle. A recently proposed exponential smoothing method involves smoothing a different intraday cycle for...

A new innovations state space modeling framework, incorporating Box-Cox transformations, Fourier series with time varying coefficients and ARMA error correction, is introduced for forecasting complex seasonal time series that cannot be handled using existing forecasting models. Such complex time...

We evaluate the performance of various methods for forecasting tourism demand. The data used include 380 monthly series, 427 quarterly series and 530 yearly series, all supplied to us by tourism bodies or by academics from previous tourism forecasting studies. The forecasting methods implemented...

We review the past 25 years of time series research that has been published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985; International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During this period, over one third of all papers published in these...