In this paper we propose a new test procedure with more general steady state information to test the convergence hypothesis for a specific economy. We consider a model where demeaned per capita output of an economy is a function of time trend and then set the convergence hypothesis as negative...

This paper investigates empirically the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis (BSH) using annual data over 1970-2008 from 33 countries grouped into developed and developing countries. The innovative feature of our study is that we introduce a new approach for classifying traded and nontraded industries....

This paper considers the relationship between growth in real per capita GDP and the growth in real per capita GDP of the poorest 20% of a country. It uses the data set compiled by Dollar and Kraay (2002), but come to very different conclusions. We argue that if the purpose is to answer questions...

This paper establishes vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models for Malaysian monetary policy analysis by efficiently identifying and simultaneously estimating the model parameters using full information maximum likelihood. The monetary literature is largely dominated by vector...

We present an empirical analysis of a long run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for thirteen Asian-Pacific countries using cointegration techniques.

We evaluate the performance of various methods for forecasting tourism demand. The data used include 380 monthly series, 427 quarterly series and 530 yearly series, all supplied to us by tourism bodies or by academics from previous tourism forecasting studies. The forecasting methods implemented...

We review the past 25 years of time series research that has been published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985; International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During this period, over one third of all papers published in these...

The state space approach to modelling univariate time series is now widely used both in theory and in applications. However, the very richness of the framework means that quite different model formulations are possible, even when they purport to describe the same phenomena. In this paper, we...

A new approach is proposed for forecasting a time series with multiple seasonal patterns. A state space model is developed for the series using the single source of error approach which enables us to develop explicit models for both additive and multiplicative seasonality. Parameter estimates...

We discuss and compare measures of accuracy of univariate time series forecasts. The methods used in the M-competition and the M3-competition, and many of the measures recommended by previous authors on this topic, are found to be inadequate, and many of them are degenerate in commonly occurring...