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Hypothesis testing is widely regarded as an essential part of statistics, but it s use in research has led to considerable controversy in a number of disciplines, especially psychology, with a number of commentators suggesting it should not be used at all. A root cause of this controversy was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149047
appropriate to a particular time series is based on prediction validation on a withheld part of the sample using criteria such as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149029
An approach to exponential smoothing that relies on a linear single source of error state space model is outlined. A maximum likelihood method for the estimation of associated smoothing parameters is developed. Commonly used restrictions on the smoothing parameters are rationalised. Issues...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149042
. For a nominal variable, the quality of a prediction is measured by the probability of error; for a numeric variable, it is … specified using a prediction interval. Presenting statistical analysis in this way provides students with a clearer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149116
the basis that the one-step ahead prediction error can be decomposed into permanent and transient components. It is found …. As such, the prediction error argument provides the rationale for these restrictions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149124
We propose new tools for visualizing large numbers of functional data in the form of smooth curves or surfaces. The proposed tools include functional versions of the bagplot and boxplot, and make use of the first two robust principal component scores, Tukey's data depth and highest density...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005427617
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005581128
In this paper we have demonstrated the implications of incorrectly normalising the parameters of a reduced rank regression model to achieve global identification, and presented a method for estimating this model without using the ordering restrictions imposed in previous Bayesian and frequentist...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005427606
This paper provides an empirical analysis of a range of alternative single-factor continuous time models for the Australian short-term interest rate. The models are indexed by the level effect parameter for the volatility in the short rate process. The inferential approach adopted is Bayesian,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005427611
Several authors have postulated econometric models for exchange rates restricted to lie within known target zones. However, it is not uncommon to observe exchange rate data with known limits that are not fully 'credible'; that is, where some of the observations fall outside the stated range. An...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005427613