This paper develops a new non-linear model to analyse the business cycle by exploiting the relationship between the asymmetrical behaviour of the cycle and leading indicators. The model proposed is an innovations form of the structural model underlying simple exponential smoothing that is...

The half-life is defined as the number of periods required for the impulse response to a unit shock to a time series to dissipate by half. It is widely used as a measure of persistence, especially in international economics to quantify the degree of mean reversion of the deviation from an...

In this paper we will investigate the consequences of applying the sieve bootstrap under regularity conditions that are sufficiently general to encompass both fractionally integrated and non-invertible processes. The sieve bootstrap is obtained by approximating the data generating process by an...

In this paper we study a statistical method of implementing quasi-Bayes estimators for nonlinear and nonseparable GMM models, that is motivated by the ideas proposed in Chernozhukov and Hong (2003) and Creel and Kristensen (2011) and that combines simulation with nonparametric regression in the...

The average exponential tests for structural change of Andrews and Ploberger (Econometrica, 62, 1994) and Andrews, Lee and Ploberger (Journal of Econometrics 70, 1996) and modifications thereof maximize a weighted average power which incorporates specific weighting functions in order to make the...

This research proposes that, in cases where threshold covariates are either unavailable or difficult to observe, practitioners should treat these characteristics as latent, and use simulated maximum likelihood techniques to control for them. Two econometric frameworks for doing so in a more...

A semiparametric method is developed for estimating the dependence parameter and the joint distribution of the error term in the multivariate linear regression model. The nonparametric part of the method treats the marginal distributions of the error term as unknown, and estimates them by...

The problem considered in this paper is how to find reliable prediction intervals with simple exponential smoothing and trend corrected exponential smoothing. Methods for constructing prediction intervals based on linear approximation and bootstrapping are proposed.

This paper derives six different forms of message length functions for general linear regression model. In so doing, two different prior densities and the idea of parameter orthogonality are employed.

It is well known that the usual techniques for estimating random and fixed effects panel data models are inconsistent in the dynamic setting. As a consequence, numerous consistent estimators have been proposed in the literature. However, all such estimators rely on certain well defined...