Showing 1 - 10 of 117
Realized volatility of stock returns is often decomposed into two distinct components that are attributed to continuous price variation and jumps. This paper proposes a tobit multivariate factor model for the jumps coupled with a standard multivariate factor model for the continuous sample path...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008467332
-term forecasting and also produce sensible long-term forecasts. The forecasts are compared with the official Australian government …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149064
A Kalman filter, suitable for application to a stationary or a non-stationary time series, is proposed. It works on time series with missing values. It can be used on seasonal time series where the associated state space model may not satisfy the traditional observability condition. A new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005581117
for macroeconomic forecasting to VARs given the recent advances in VARMA modelling methodology and improvements in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005087575
It is a common practice to complement a forecasting method such as simple exponential smoothing with a monitoring …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005087610
Despite the commonly held belief that aggregate data display short-run comovement, there has been little discussion about the econometric consequences of this feature of the data. We use exhaustive Monte-Carlo simulations to investigate the importance of restrictions implied by common-cyclical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149052
The basic ideals underlying the Kalman filter are outlined in this paper without direct recourse to the complex formulae normally associated with this method. The novel feature of the paper is its reliance on a new algebraic system based on the first two moments of the multivariate normal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005581165
exponential smoothing method of forecasting on a database of demand series for slow moving car parts. The methods considered … negative binomial measurements, and the Croston method of forecasting. In the case of the Croston method, a maximum likelihood …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005427641
Estimation in two classes of popular models, single-index models and partially linear single-index models, is studied in this paper. Such models feature nonstationarity. Orthogonal series expansion is used to approximate the unknown integrable link function in the models and a profile approach...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958956
continuously or with some jumps. This view is widely held in the forecasting literature and under this view, the time series … contemporary forecasting methods is compared to ours using a number of macroeconomic data. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010860411