This paper introduces a new specification for the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model for the realized volatility of S&P500 index returns. In this new model, the coeffcients of the HAR are allowed to be time-varying with unknown functional forms. We propose a local linear method for...

This paper investigates whether or not there are significant changes in the dependence between the Thai equity market and six Asian markets - namely, Singaporean, Malaysian, Hong Kong, Korean, Indonesian and Taiwanese markets - due to 1997-July financial crisis. If so, this may be an indication...

The half-life is defined as the number of periods required for the impulse response to a unit shock to a time series to dissipate by half. It is widely used as a measure of persistence, especially in international economics to quantify the degree of mean reversion of the deviation from an...

This paper investigates nonparametric estimation of density on [0,1]. The kernel estimator of density on [0,1] has been found to be sensitive to both bandwidth and kernel. This paper proposes a unified Bayesian framework for choosing both the bandwidth and kernel function. In a simulation study,...

This paper establishes vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models for Malaysian monetary policy analysis by efficiently identifying and simultaneously estimating the model parameters using full information maximum likelihood. The monetary literature is largely dominated by vector...

This paper builds a structural VARMA (SVARMA) model for investigating Canadian monetary policy. Despite the support for a VARMA model for monetary policy analysis, the traditional VAR and SVAR models have predominantly been used in the literature mainly due to difficulties associated with the...

This paper proposes improvements to advanced measurement approach (AMA) to estimating operational risks, and applies the improved methods to US business losses categorised into five business lines and three event types operational losses. The AMA involves, among others, modelling a loss severity...

This paper investigates stock-bond portfolios’ tail risks such as value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES), and the way in which these measures have been affected by the global financial crisis. The semiparametric t-copula is found to be adequate for modelling stock-bond joint...

This paper studies nonlinear cointegration models in which the structural coefficients may evolve smoothly over time. These time-varying coefficient functions are well-suited to many practical applications and can be estimated conveniently by nonparametric kernel methods. It is shown that the...

Time series analysis is a tremendous research area in statistics and econometrics. As remarked in a review by Howell Tong in 2001, for about 100 years up to 2001 Biometrika (alone) published over 400 papers on the subject. [Tong (2001)] Furthermore, in the review, Howell Tong is able break down...