Relying on Michigan Survey' monthly micro data on inflation expectations we try to determine the main features -- in terms of sources and degree of heterogeneity - of inflation expectation formation over different phases of the business cycle and for different demographic subgroups. We identify...

The purpose of the paper is twofold. Firstly, we test the validity of the PPP hypothesis for selected CEEC (Czech Republic; Hungary; Poland and Slovak Republic). Secondly, we attempt to define those countries’ trade linkages between Euro Area; US and the rest of the world. By applying both...

The real interest rate gap -IRG-, i.e. the gap between the short term real interest rate and its “natural†level, is a theoretical concept of potential policy relevance for central banks, at least to evaluate the monetary policy stance, at best as a guideline for policy moves. This...

This paper introduces a general method to study stability (under learning) of equilibria resulting from agents with misspecified perceptions of the law of motion of the economy. This is done by transforming the actual and perceived laws of motion into the form of seemingly unrelated regressions...

The focus of this paper is on the leading indicator properties of high-yield corporate spreads regarding the level of real economic activity. This is motivated by both the financial accelerator mechanism underlying business cycle fluctuations as suggested by Bernanke and Gertler (1989). We...