The Bank of Russia decided in June to keep the key interest rate unchanged because of worsening geopolitical uncertainty, capital outflows from developing countries as a consequence of tighter US Fed's monetary policy, plans to raise the VAT rate, as well as prices adjustment to a weaker rouble....

The third quarter of 2018 saw Russia register the highest positive BoP on record on the back of growth in country's exports amid higher oil prices and decline in imports induced by rouble depreciation. BoP data show that non-residents continued to reduce their investment in the Russian economy....

In 2018, the developing economies were experiencing a capital outfl ow due to toughening, by the USA, of its monetary policy, as well as the trade war between China and the United States. The most vulnerable ones turned out to be Argentina and Turkey, two countries that had accumulated quite a...

Central banks normally accept debt of their own governments as collateral in liquidity operations without reservations. This gives rise to a valuable liquidity premium that reduces the cost of government finance. The ECB is an interesting exception in this respect. It relies on external...

This paper develops and estimates a Quadratic-Gaussia model of the U.S. term structure that can accommodate the rich dynamics of inflation risk premia over the 1983-2013 period by allowing for time-varying market prices of inflation risk and incorporating survey information on inflation...

The ongoing policy strategy review presents a unique opportunity for the ECB to examine how to best employ its immense power to fulfil its mandate. Two challenges require urgent attention. First, the “lowflation” problem – the outcome of overly tight policies that allowed inflation to...

Monetary policy has fiscal implications that are especially pronounced at the zero lower bound. Independent central banks in advanced economies have considerable leeway to ease fiscal pressures faced by governments without compromising price stability. They also have the power to create...

Since the beginning of the crisis, euro area governments have experienced greater fiscal stress than governments of advanced economies outside the euro area with weaker fiscal fundamentals. What has been the source of this fragility and how can it be corrected? The cause of the instability in...

The multiple crises observed in the European Union over the past decade have undermined trust and the foundations for cohesion in Europe. In the absence of a common government, confederations without strong common independent institutions are fragile and prone to collapse. Some of the observed...

This paper explores the reasons for the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy mix in the euro area in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and ways in which the status quo can be improved. A comparison of fiscal and monetary policies and of economic outcomes in the euro area and the United...