In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is used to decompose the balances of Ifo Business survey data into the cyclical, the seasonal and the irregular components, as well as the working day effect. The empirical results show that the total cycle consists of three subcycles with about 3,5...

Based on a stochastic dynamic model of a firm’s optimal innovativebehavior we derive a simultaneous equation system for product andprocess innovations with intertemporal spillover effects. We estimatevarious versions of the model with dichotomous innovation data at thefirm level by using a...

This paper deals with the effects of labour market institutions onlabour market performance. We analyse as an indicator for the labourintensity of output growth the employment threshold (the minimum growthrate of output necessary to keep employment constant). We show for asample of 17 OECD...

This paper deals with the effects of labour market institutions on unemployment in a panel of 19 OECD countries for the period 1960-2000. In contrast to many other studies, we use long time series and analyse cyclically adjusted trend values of the unemployment rate. Our novel contribution is...

The production index is an important indicator for assessing the cyclical state of the economy. Unfortunately, the monthly time series is contaminated by many noisy components like seasonal variations, calendar and vacation effects. Only part of those nuisance components are explicitly...

The concept of the ’employment threshold’ plays an important role in the public discussion of unemployment. The employment threshold is defined as that growth rate of output necessary to keep employment constant despite the continuous rise in productivity. It is related to the Okun...

This paper presents a dynamic random effects probit model for the realization of private firms’ product and process innovations. We estimate the model with panel data collected by the Ifo Institute in Munich. The data covers the period between 1979 and 1986 and includes 301 firms of the West...

This paper deals with the residential demand for electricity. A theoretical model is formulated which is based on intertemporal optimization in a household production context. The model is estimated using a dynamic version of the PLS (partial-least-squares) approach. Most important determinants...

We test the hypothesis of a negative long-term trend and/or a structural break in total factor productivity (TFP) after the first oil price shock for West German manufacturing industries within an econometric model based on a flexible cost function with capital as a quasi-fixed factor. After...