We analyze an infinite stage, alternating offer bargaining game in which the buyer knows the gains from trade but the seller does not. Under weak assumptions the game has a unique candidate Perfect Sequential Equilibrium, and it can be solved by backward induction. Equilibrium involves the...

The main econometric issue in testing the Lucas hypothesis (1973) in a times series context is the estimation of the variance conditional on past information. The ARCH model, proposed by Engle (1982), is one way of specifying the conditional variance. But the assumption underlying the ARCH...

In this paper we analyze games in which there is trade between informed and uninformed players. The informed know the value of the trade (for instance, the value of their productivity in a labor market example); the uninformed only know the distribution of attributes among the informed. The...

This paper develops a model of individual decisionmaking in the presence of social interactions when the number of available choices is finite. We show how a multinomial logit model framework may be used to model such decisions in a way that permits a tight integration of theory and...

We propose a nonparametric method for automatically selecting the number of autocovariances to use in computing a heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. For a given kernel for weighting the autocovariances, we prove that our procedure is asymptotically equivalent to...

This paper examines experiments on interdependent security prisoner's dilemma games with repeated play. By utilizing a Bayesian hierarchical model, we examine how subjects make investment decisions as a function of their previous experience and their treatment condition. Our main findings are...

In recent years, considerable attention has been devoted to the development of statistical methods for the analysis of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis, with a focus on situations in which the analyst has patient-level data on the costs and health effects of alternative interventions....

This paper is a practical guide (a toolkit) for researchers, students and practitioners wishing to introduce randomization as part of a research design in the field. It first covers the rationale for the use of randomization, as a solution to selection bias and a partial solution to publication...

In this paper, we investigate the problem of estimating distributed lags in short panels. Estimates of the parameter of distributed lag relationships based on single time-series of observations have been usually rather imprecise. The promise of panel data in this context is in the N repetitions...

In this paper we investigate the role of credit institutions in transmitting monetary shocks to the domestic economy and to the rest of the world output. In modeling the monetary and financial sector of the economy we distinguish between monetary injections via lump-sum transfers to individuals...