In this paper we draw attention to two problems associated with the use of instrumental variables (IV) whose importance for empirical work has not been fully appreciated. First, using potential instruments that explain little of the variation in the: endogenous explanatory variables can lead to...

We consider both frequentist and empirical Bayes forecasts of a single time series using a linear model with T observations and K orthonormal predictors. The frequentist formulation considers estimators that are equivariant under permutations (reorderings) of the regressors. The empirical Bayes...

In many time series models, an infinite number of moments can be used for estimation in a large sample. I supply a technically undemanding proof of a condition for optimal instrumental variables use of such moments in a parametric model. I also illustrate application of the condition in...

Multiple cointegrating regressions are frequently encountered in empirical work as, for example, in the analysis of panel data. When the equilibrium errors are correlated across equations, the seemingly unrelated regression estimation strategy can be applied to cointegrating regressions to...

It is well known that the distribution of statistics testing restrictions on the coefficients in time series regressions can depend on the order of integration of the regressors. In practice the order of integration is rarely blown. This paper examines two conventional approaches to this...

Applied economists have long struggled with the question of how to accommodate binary endogenous regressors in models with binary and non-negative outcomes. I argue here that much of the difficulty with limited-dependent variables comes from a focus on structural parameters, such as index...

Recently there has been a surge in econometric work focusing on estimating average treatment effects under various sets of assumptions. One strand of this literature has developed methods for estimating average treatment effects for a binary treatment under assumptions variously described as...

Numerous studies of the determinants of children's attainments rely on observations of circumstances and events at age 14 as proxies for information over the entire childhood period. Using 21 years of panel data from the Michigan PSID on 825 children who were 14-16 years old in 1979, we evaluate...

We analyze an infinite stage, alternating offer bargaining game in which the buyer knows the gains from trade but the seller does not. Under weak assumptions the game has a unique candidate Perfect Sequential Equilibrium, and it can be solved by backward induction. Equilibrium involves the...

The main econometric issue in testing the Lucas hypothesis (1973) in a times series context is the estimation of the variance conditional on past information. The ARCH model, proposed by Engle (1982), is one way of specifying the conditional variance. But the assumption underlying the ARCH...