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Over-Optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2012

. The members of the eurozone are supposedly constrained by the fiscal caps of the Stability and Growth Pact. Yet ever since …:•Governments' budget forecasts are biased in the optimistic direction, especially among the Eurozone countries, especially when they have …-optimistic during booms.•Despite the well-known tendency of eurozone members to exceed the 3% cap on budget deficits, often in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102194

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts : Can Private Forecasts Help?

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2016

Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over-optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. For...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988513

The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Rose, Andrew Kenan - 2021

A country's suitability for entry into a currency union depends on a number of economic conditions. These include, inter alia, the intensity of trade with other potential members of the currency union, and the extent to which domestic business cycles are correlated with those of the other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249558

The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1996

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473138

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts : Can Private Forecasts Help?

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2016

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456327

Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2012

. The members of the eurozone are supposedly constrained by the fiscal caps of the Stability and Growth Pact. Yet ever since …•Despite the well-known tendency of eurozone members to exceed the 3% cap on budget deficits, often in consecutive … among eurozone forecasts. If euro area governments are not in violation of the 3% cap at the time forecasts are made …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460377

Over-Optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and its Implications

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2011

The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found: (i) to have a positive average bias, (ii) to be more biased in booms, (iii) to be even more biased at the 3-year horizon than at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122217

Air Pollution and Procyclical Mortality

Heutel, Garth - 2013

Prior research demonstrates that mortality rates increase during economic booms and decrease during economic busts, but little analysis has been conducted investigating the role of environmental risks as potential mechanisms for this relationship. We investigate the contribution of air pollution...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013083393

Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a "Carry Trade" Model of Commodity Prices

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2013

The paper presents and estimates a model of the prices of oil and other storable commodities, a model that can be characterized as reflecting the carry trade. It focuses on speculative factors, here defined as the trade-off between interest rates on the one hand and market participants'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075796

Shackling the Identification Police?

Ruhm, Christopher J. - 2018

This paper examines potential tradeoffs between research methods in answering important questions versus providing more cleanly identified estimates on problems that are potentially of lesser interest. The strengths and limitations of experimental and quasi-experimental methods are discussed and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012907123