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Over-Optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2012

. The members of the eurozone are supposedly constrained by the fiscal caps of the Stability and Growth Pact. Yet ever since …:•Governments' budget forecasts are biased in the optimistic direction, especially among the Eurozone countries, especially when they have …-optimistic during booms.•Despite the well-known tendency of eurozone members to exceed the 3% cap on budget deficits, often in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102194

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts : Can Private Forecasts Help?

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2016

Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over-optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. For...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988513

The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Rose, Andrew Kenan - 2021

A country's suitability for entry into a currency union depends on a number of economic conditions. These include, inter alia, the intensity of trade with other potential members of the currency union, and the extent to which domestic business cycles are correlated with those of the other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249558

The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1996

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473138

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts : Can Private Forecasts Help?

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2016

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456327

Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2012

. The members of the eurozone are supposedly constrained by the fiscal caps of the Stability and Growth Pact. Yet ever since …•Despite the well-known tendency of eurozone members to exceed the 3% cap on budget deficits, often in consecutive … among eurozone forecasts. If euro area governments are not in violation of the 3% cap at the time forecasts are made …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460377

Over-Optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and its Implications

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2011

The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found: (i) to have a positive average bias, (ii) to be more biased in booms, (iii) to be even more biased at the 3-year horizon than at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122217

Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a "Carry Trade" Model of Commodity Prices

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2013

The paper presents and estimates a model of the prices of oil and other storable commodities, a model that can be characterized as reflecting the carry trade. It focuses on speculative factors, here defined as the trade-off between interest rates on the one hand and market participants'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075796

The Constrained Asset Share Estimation (Case) Method : Testing Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market

Engel, Charles M. - 2010

We apply the method of constrained asset share estimation (CASE) to test the mean-variance efficiency (MVE) of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763456

Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Servén, Luis - 2021

The corners hypothesis holds that intermediate exchange rate regimes are vanishing, or should be. Surprisingly for a new conventional wisdom, this hypothesis so far lacks analytic foundations. In part, the generalization is overdone. We nevertheless offer one possible theoretical rationale, a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217196