We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...

We show that the difference between the natural rate of interest and the current level of monetary policy stance, which we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises...

This paper investigates the joint dynamics of nominal bond yields, real bond yields and dividend yields from the 80s up to the aftermath of the financial crisis by mapping them on a set of macro factors. It builds on an existing discrete time affine Gaussian model of the term structure model of...

This paper examine differences between risk-neutral and objective probability densities of future interest rates. The identification and quantification of these differences are important when risk-neutral densities (RNDs), such as option-implied RNDs, are used as indicators of actual beliefs of...

We estimate time-varying expected excess returns on the US stock market from 1983 to 2008 using a model that jointly captures the arbitrage-free dynamics of stock returns and nominal bond yields. The model nests the class of affine term structure (of interest rates) models. Stock returns and...

This paper attempts to extract market expectations about the Japanese economy and the BOJ's policy stance from the yen yield curves augmented by money market interest rates, during the period from the end of the quantitative easing policy in March 2006. We use (i) the swap yield curves augmented...

This paper uses a dynamic panel approach to explain the determinants of widening sovereign bond yield spreads vis-à-vis Germany in selected euro area countries during the period end-July 2007 to end-March 2009, when the financial turmoil developed into a full-blown financial and economic...

This paper investigates the link between the perceived inflation risks in macro-economic forecasts and the inflation risk premia embodied in financial instruments. We first provide some stylized facts about the term structure of inflation compensation, inflation expectations and inflation risk...

There is strong evidence that on-the-run U.S. Treasury securities trade much more liquidly and at significantly higher prices than their off-the-run counterparts. We examine if the same phenomenon is present in the German government bond market whose market structure differ markedly from that of...

The search for a market design that ensures stable bank funding is at the top of regulators' policy agenda. This paper empirically shows that the central counterparty (CCP)-based euro interbank repo market features this stability. Using a unique and comprehensive data set, we show that the...