I review evidence of rising policy uncertainty in the U.S. and global economies, drawing heavily on newspaper … fluctuations in economic uncertainty. I also highlight the prominent role of trade policy as a source of uncertainty and stock … between policy uncertainty and economic performance.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents …

hiring. In a simulation model we investigate the channels underlying this pecking-order response to long-run uncertainty, and …Uncertainty appears to have both a short-run and a long-run component, which we measure using firm and macro implied … volatility data from options of 30 days to 10 years duration. We ask what may be driving uncertainty over these different time …

-side uncertainty. Using term structure and macroeconomic data, we find sizable effects of uncertainty on risk premia and business cycle … fluctuations. Both demand-side and supply-side uncertainty imply large contractions in real activity and an increase in term premia …, but supply-side uncertainty has larger effects on inflation and investment. We introduce a novel analytical decomposition …

monetary policy. The theory unifies an endogenous supply of illiquid local loans and risk-sharing among subsidiaries of bank …

We provide evidence on the relationship between aggregate uncertainty and the macroeconomy. Identifying uncertainty … are robustly followed by contractions, while shocks to forward-looking uncertainty have no significant effect on the … realization of volatility, rather than uncertainty about the future, that has been associated with declines …

previously considered in existing quantitative macro studies of housing finance: aggregate business cycle risk, and a realistic …, the boom in house prices is entirely the result of a decline in the housing risk premium. Third, low interest rates cannot …

model is often inappropriate, since model uncertainty is an important element of policy evaluation. We advocate the use of … model averaging to account for model uncertainty and show how it may be applied to policy evaluation exercises. We …

We provide new estimates of the importance of growth rate and uncertainty shocks for developed countries. The shocks we …

We propose a text-based method for measuring and analyzing the international propagation of uncertainty shocks at the … firm level. We apply this method to estimate the impact of Brexit-related uncertainty and find widespread reverberations on … listed firms in 81 countries. International firms most exposed to Brexit uncertainty not only significantly lost market value …