obtained in a complete information setting, where coordination is easy, to those obtained in a setting with strategic risk … deterrent effect under complete information, this does not hold anymore under strategic risk. Rather, we find that increases in … weapon stocks can have a non-monotonic effect on the sustainability of peace. We also show that under strategic risk …

We assess the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainty (TPU) toward China in a tractable general equilibrium framework … theory-consistent measure of TPU and estimate that it can explain between 22-30% of Chinese exports to the US after WTO …

Auerbach-Jorgenson first year recovery plan is not equivalent to indexing as is often claimed, if uncertainty about inflation … implies uncertainty about the real after-tax discount rate …

) welfare-neutral. Only a small part of measured income mobility is due to either welfare-reducing income risk or welfare …

We develop a macroeconomic model with physical and human capital, human capital risk, and limited contract enforcement …. We show analytically that young (high-return) households are the most exposed to human capital risk and are also the … least insured. We document this risk-insurance pattern in data on life-insurance drawn from the Survey of Consumer Finance …