An appropriate metric for the success of an algorithm to forecast the variance of the rate of return on a capital asset could be the incremental profit from substituting it for the next best alternative. We propose a framework to assess incremental profits for competing algorithms to forecast...

This paper derives relationships between frequency-domain and standard time-domain distributed-lag and autoregessive moving-average models. These relations are well known in the literature but are presented here in a pedogogic form in order to facilitate interpretation of spectral and...

This paper introduces a class of statistical tests for the hypothesis that some feature of a data set is common to several variables. A feature is detected in a single series by a hypothesis test where the null is that it is absent, and the alternative is that it is present. Examples are serial...

This paper tests for cointegration between regional output of an industry and national output of the same industry. An equilibrium economic theory is presented to argue for the plausibility of cointegration, however, regional economic forecasting using the shift and share framework often acts as...