Seasonal adjustment procedures attempt to estimate the sample realizations of an unobservable economic time series in the presence of both seasonal factors and irregular factors. In this paper we consider a factor which has not been considered explicitly in previous treatments of seasonal...

Some public goods are provided entirely with private contributions, others with a mixture of public and private funding, and still others are entirely publicly funded. To explain this variation, a model of dual provision is developed that endogenizes public and private funding. Members of the...

We study the impact of two dimensions of trust, namely trust in business elites and trust in government, on policy preferences. Using a randomized online survey, we find that our two treatments are effective in changing trust in Major Companies and in Courts/Government. In contrast to previous...

We characterize the dynamic properties of Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) processes by identifying regions of the parameter space that imply stationarity and ergodicity. We show how these regions are affected by the choice of parameterization and scaling, which are key features of GAS...

An exact maximum likelihood method is developed for the estimation of parameters in a non-Gaussian nonlinear log-density function that depends on a latent Gaussian dynamic process with long-memory properties. Our method relies on the method of importance sampling and on a linear Gaussian...

Combined forecasts from a linear and a nonlinear model areinvestigated for timeseries with possibly nonlinear characteristics. The forecasts arecombined by aconstant coefficient regression method as well as a time varyingmethod. Thetime varying method allows for a locally (non)linear model....