We address the problem of choosing a portfolio of policies under "deep uncertainty." We introduce the idea of belief …

fundamentalists and chartists co-exist and are subject to regret and uncertainty. We find significant evidence that energy markets are … composed by heterogeneous traders which behave differently depending on the intensity of the price fluctuations and uncertainty … ; Uncertainty Aversion ; Regret …

variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common …

Financial markets are central to the transmission of uncertainty shocks. This paper documents a new aspect of the … interaction between the two by showing that uncertainty shocks have radically different macroeconomic implications depending on … uncertainty is proxied by the (unobserved) volatility of the structural shocks, and a regime change occurs whenever credit …

setting, an increase in uncertainty about future shocks causes significant contractions in the economy and may lead to non … outcomes. Fluctuations in uncertainty and the zero lower bound help our model match the unconditional and stochastic volatility …

This paper extends the procedure developed by Jurado et al. (2015) to allow the estimation of measures of uncertainty … overall macroeconomic uncertainty. To demonstrate the proposed method we consider two applications. First, we estimate UK … macroeconomic uncertainty due to external shocks and show that this component has become increasingly important over time for …