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A representative investor does not know which member of a set of well-defined parametric "structured models'' is best. The investor also suspects that all of the structured models are misspecified. These uncertainties about probability distributions of risks give rise to components of...
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exposures. Using data for the trading activities in the market of deep out-of-the-money S&P 500 put options, we identify periods …
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We study the pricing of uncertainty shocks using a wide-ranging set of options that reveal premia for macroeconomic risks. Portfolios hedging macro uncertainty have historically earned zero or even significantly positive returns, while those exposed to the realization of large shocks have earned...
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the international data on large consumption declines. We allow the risk of this rare disaster to be stochastic, which … specifications for the stochastic rare disaster probability and show that the data favor a multifrequency process. Finally, we show …
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conforms with data from 1983 to 2015 on far-out-of-the-money put options on the U.S. S&P 500 and analogous indices for other … countries. The analysis uses two types of data—indicative prices on OTC contracts offered by a large financial firm and market … data provided by OptionMetrics, Bloomberg, and Berkeley Options Data Base. The options-pricing formula involves a …
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